Ticket-to-ride
commuter flights to the edge of space may not be too far off - with spaceliners
departing several spaceports here in the United States.
New facts
regarding the emerging personal space travel business were presented last week
before the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics in Washington, D.C.
Testifying before lawmakers and making the technical and
business case for public space travel were Burt Rutan, chief of Scaled
Composites of Mojave, California, joined by Will Whitehorn, President of Virgin Galactic - a space
tourism venture that is a subsidiary of Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group.
Last year,
privately-financed, single-seat suborbital flights of SpaceShipOne were
achieved, snagging the Ansari X Prize in the process. That $10 million purse
was put in play to spur both suborbital and orbital public space
transportation. SpaceShipOne was designed and built by Scaled Composites.
Also in
2004, a deal was struck between Mojave Aerospace Ventures, a joint venture
formed by Rutan and billionaire Paul Allen,
co-founder of Microsoft, and the Virgin Group. For their part, Virgin has
created a new subsidiary, Virgin Galactic, which has plans to contract Scaled
Composites to build a fleet of suborbital vehicles based on the SpaceShipOne -
but able to haul up to five passengers high above Earth.
The
negotiations between the groups last year resulted in a $21.5 million deal for
the use of SpaceShipOne technology. In addition, a $100 million investment plan
was developed to build up to five SpaceShipTwo vehicles at Rutan's Scaled
Composites factory in Mojave, California.
The plan
for the ships themselves is being developed by Rutan to a specification created
by Virgin Galactic, Whitehorn testified.
Second site: Florida,
Texas or New Mexico?
In his
written testimony, Whitehorn told Congress that his company's current plan is
to begin suborbital operations in Mojave, and then develop a second site in
another location, possibly Florida, Texas or New
Mexico.
In terms of
first flight, the Virgin Galactic chief said that service could start in either
2008 or 2009.
"Let me be
clear, this is an estimate only," Whitehorn testified, noting that "safety is
our North Star and it will determine our launch date." Commercial suborbital jaunts would start as
soon as safety assessments and training dictate that the firm could do so, "and
not a day before," he said.
Virgin
Galactic has a memorandum of understanding with Scaled Composites to customize
the SpaceShipOne vehicle for commercial use. Design work to that end continues.
However, Whitehorn's firm has not yet formally ordered the spacecraft.
As far as
making money on the venture, Whitehorn reported that their business plan
projects profitability in the fourth or fifth year of operation. This estimate
assumes five spaceships, two launch aircraft or mother ships, and two launch
bases in the United States.
"If the schedule for deploying any of these assets slips, it would negatively
impact our target date for profitability," he explained.
Pay-as-you-go astronauts
For their
$200,000, Virgin Galactic customers are promised a two hour trip on the "spaceliner". Half of the voyage, Whitehorn reported, will
involve climbing to a safe altitude with the mother ship. Pay-as-you-go
astronauts would then spend an hour on SpaceShipTwo as it rockets to over three
times the speed of sound and climbs to well in excess of 62 miles (100
kilometer) altitude and returns to Earth.
That
suborbital height is officially recognized as entering space. But Whitehorn also
identified a future goal of Virgin Galactic.
"Our
long-term goal is to develop commercial space tourism into an orbital business
which could in the future carry payloads as well as people into orbit,"
Whitehorn stated.
Aerospace designer,
Burt Rutan, also explained last week that the markets for a future personal
spaceflight industry - meaning access to flight above the atmosphere by the
public -- will likely take on two basic forms, or scenarios.
- Commercial
companies that develop lower-cost versions of the classic government booster
and spacecraft concepts. These firms then conduct commercial flights in 4 to 6
years that are funded by passenger ticket sales. Perhaps 50 to 100 astronauts
would be flown the first year with the rate topping out at maybe 300 to 500 per
year.
- The
second scenario involves players that do not find the dangers of space flight
acceptable. It is recognized that extensive improvements in safety are more
important than extensive improvements in affordability. These players are faced
with a much greater technical challenge and the need for new innovations and
breakthroughs. If successful, however, a far greater market can be realized,
starting out at 500 astronauts the first year, increasing to about 3,000 astronauts
per year, headed toward 50,000 to 100,000 astronauts by the twelfth year of
operations.
Just having fun
Rutan said
that his plans do not involve a 'scenario one' approach.
"We believe
a proper goal for safety is the record that was achieved during the first five
years of commercial scheduled airline service which, while exposing the
passengers to high risks by today's standards, was more than 100 times as safe
as government manned space flight," Rutan explained in his written testimony.
Rutan
remarked that he's aware suborbital tourism has been criticized by some as
"joy-riding for billionaires" and that such flights are just about having fun.
"I'm not at
all embarrassed that we're opening up a new industry that will likely be a
multi-billion dollar industry that's focused only on fun," Rutan told
lawmakers. He expects -- like the first personal computers that were used just
for game playing -- having fun by traveling into space will bloom in a decade's
time into uses that are "long lasting and significant for our nation."
Interim spaceport
In a
related development, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson announced earlier this
month that October 4-9 will be celebrated as X Prize Cup Week. White Sands Missile Range
will be the interim spaceport until a Southwest Regional Spaceport in Upham, near Las
Cruces, is opened in 2007 or 2008.
The news that Virgin Galactic
envisions use of several takeoff points for propelling patrons toward space is
welcome news to Peter Diamandis, Chairman
and Founder of the X Prize Foundation, based in St. Louis
"Our hope is that the X Prize Cup
activities will help bring suborbital tourism operators to the southern New Mexico site for
year-round passenger launch operations," said Diamandis. He told SPACE.com
via email that the drivers to encourage this prospect are very clear.
First, New Mexico is setting up, and paying for,
customized facilities specifically designed to support this class of vehicle.
Secondly, the X Prize Foundation and the State are jointly planning to assist
companies in getting the required licenses and approvals. Lastly, Diamandis
continued, the State is offering economic incentives to attract these operators
to the Southern New Mexico facilities.
"Clearly there is room for a number
of locations for suborbital personal spaceflight. If all goes well, this
will be a rising tide that lifts many spaceports, and for the first time
enables a true commercial market," Diamandis explained.
Time to climb
Diamandis explained that this
coming fall they plan to have a number of the key X Prize teams demonstrate
various aspects of their hardware. "This will include engine tests,
low-altitude flights and drop tests. In the future our intent is to put up
multimillion dollar prizes to incentivize continued breakthroughs in suborbital
operations," he said.
Prizes might be tied to such areas as maximum altitude, cross-range,
turn-around-time, and time-to-climb, Diamandis added.
"We
are very proud of our partnership with New
Mexico, Las Cruses and Governor Richardson,"
Diamandis said. "We're working to make the X Prize Cup an exciting annual event
that will move the industry forward at the same time that it allows the public
to personally participate in the future of the personal spaceflight
revolution."
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