Surprise Meteor Showers: Will They Become as Predictable as Lunar Eclipses?

Surprise Meteor Showers: Will They Become as Predictable as Lunar Eclipses?
Kappa Cygnid meteor appears near the Big Dipper as seen from near Havelte in the Netherlands on August 14, 2007. (Image credit: Jan Eric Krikke)

Anunexpected meteor shower popped up during the annual Perseids shower Aug.11-13, 2007. Among the fast-moving Perseids were several slow-moving meteorsfrom a shower called the "Kappa Cygnids," radiating from a pointbetween the bright stars of Vega and Deneb. Some meteors were as bright as thefirst quarter moon and flashed in multiple colors.

KoenMiskotte, a leading amateur astronomer of the Dutch Meteor Society, firstalerted us to the shower. Many Kappa Cygnids exhibited irregular light curves and end flares. Spanishastronomers Josep M. Trigo-Rodríguez of the Institute of Space Sciences (CSIC-IEEC)and José M. Madiedo of the University of Huelva reported that the brightmeteors had been recorded on all-sky cameras of the Spanish Meteor Network(SPMN) and activity of the Kappa Cygnidsappeared to peak around Aug. 13 00h UTC, during the peak of the Perseids, butlasted for several days.

Will meteorshowers become as predictable as lunar eclipses in the future? Earlyastronomers in the ancient Orient and China predicted lunar eclipses afternoticing periodic patterns in their return. Precise predictions became possiblecenturies ago once Newton formulated the law of gravity. The application of Newton?s law to predicting meteor showers is something we have been able to do well onlyvery recently. In the past ten years we have had some success in predicting thereturn of unusual showers by calculating how the planets hustle the dust trailsin and out of Earth's path.

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Research Scientist

Peter is a distinguished Dutch-American astronomer and  senior research scientist at the Carl Sagan Center of the SETI Institute and at NASA Ames Research Center. He is a noted expert on meteor showers, meteor falls, and artificial meteors who also wrote the books "Meteor Showers and Their Parent Comets from 2006 and "Atlas of Earth's Meteor Showers from 2023. He's a graduate of Leiden University where he obtained his M.S. and Ph.D.