Aurora alert: Powerful geomagnetic storm could spark northern lights as far south as Illinois tonight and tomorrow

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Aurora chasers are on high alert for powerful geomagnetic storm conditions on Dec. 30 and Dec. 31 with northern lights possible deep into mid-latitudes.

Vibrant green and purple aurora borealis streaking across the night sky, creating a mesmerizing celestial display with stars visible in the background.
Vivid northern lights may be visible tonight and tomorrow. Keep your eyes on the skies! (Image credit: Justinreznick via Getty Images)

We could be in for a New Year's aurora treat with northern lights potentially visible deep into mid-latitudes tonight and tomorrow (Dec. 30 to Dec. 31).

Due to an incoming solar storm, also known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm warning for Dec. 31.

This is great news for those wishing to see the northern lights as the predicted geomagnetic storm could spark auroras as far south as Illinois and Oregon (around 50° latitude).

The culprit? A CME — a vast plume of plasma and magnetic field — was hurled out into space by the sun on Dec. 29 and Earth is in the firing line. The CME isn't alone, several other eruptions over the last few days have also produced Earth-directed eruptions which are expected to trigger strong geomagnetic storm conditions on Dec. 31, according to Solar Astrophysicist Ryan French.

"The Sun has really stepped up over the past few days, with frequent solar flares including a strong X-class event!" French wrote in a post on X. "A selection of these flares produced Earth-directed eruptions, expected to trigger a strong geomagnetic storm (bringing aurora) on the 31st!" French continued.

When CMEs strike Earth's magnetosphere, they bring electrically charged particles called ions that collide with Earth's magnetic field. These collisions can spark geomagnetic storms. During these storms, ions collide with atmospheric gases, releasing energy that manifests as light. This creates the stunning displays known as the northern lights, or aurora borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or aurora australis, in the Southern Hemisphere.

NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms using a G-scale, which ranks their intensity from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). The recent geomagnetic storm watch NOAA issued is rated as a G3, indicating strong storm conditions.

When will the geomagnetic storm occur?

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Current predictions place the highest level of activity (G1 to G3 conditions) between 10 p.m. EST on Dec. 30 and 10 a.m. EST on Dec. 31 (0300 GMT and 1500 GMT on Dec. 31). Another spate of activity is currently anticipated for between 4:00 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) on Dec. 31 and 10:00 p.m. EST (0300 GMT on Jan 1), with G1 conditions expected. Check out NOAA's 3-day forecast for the latest timings — note that timings are listed as UT.

Keep in mind that space weather, much like Earth's weather, is unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Even though geomagnetic storm warnings at this level are rare, they can occasionally amount to nothing.

If you're interested in tracking space weather and knowing when and where to spot auroras, download a space weather app that provides forecasts based on your location. One option I use is "My Aurora Forecast & Alerts," available for both iOS and Android. However, any similar app should work well. I also use the "Space Weather Live" app, which is available on iOS and Android, to get a deeper understanding of whether the current space weather conditions are favorable for aurora sightings.

Northern Hemisphere aurora forecast courtesy of the Met Office

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Daisy Dobrijevic
Daisy Dobrijevic
Reference Editor

Daisy Dobrijevic joined Space.com in February 2022 having previously worked for our sister publication All About Space magazine as a staff writer. Before joining us, Daisy completed an editorial internship with the BBC Sky at Night Magazine and worked at the National Space Centre in Leicester, U.K., where she enjoyed communicating space science to the public. In 2021, Daisy completed a PhD in plant physiology and also holds a Master's in Environmental Science, she is currently based in Nottingham, U.K. Daisy is passionate about all things space, with a penchant for solar activity and space weather. She has a strong interest in astrotourism and loves nothing more than a good northern lights chase! 

4 Comments Comment from the forums
  • cacarr
    " ... far south as Illinois and Oregon (around 50° latitude). ..."

    No part of Oregon is at 50⁰ latitude. Portland is at 45.5⁰ North
    Reply
  • ACanadianDude
    The map we saw, via Google, shows 50 degrees to run through Manitoba. The 49th is the boarder between the USA and Canada... Or did the maps change and SPACE. COM forget to tell us all..?
    Reply
  • billslugg
    The aurora can be seen far south of where it occurs. If it is 60 km altitude, it could possibly be seen on the horizon 800 km away. An aurora 1,000 km high might be seen 3,700 km away.
    Reply
  • Unclear Engineer
    So, how high are auroras actually formed? From https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/aurora-tutorial
    "The figure below shows a typical spectrum of aurora.

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/AuroraSpectrum.jpg
    Different auroral colors come from different heights in the atmosphere primarily because the life-time of an excited atom or molecule (time spent in its excited state) is vastly different for different colors of the aurora. The green aurora from oxygen in the 1S state typically occurs from 120 to 400 km (80 to 250 miles) above the surface of Earth. The red aurora from oxygen in the 1D state is restricted to altitudes above 300 km (180 km miles). This is because oxygen in the 1D state has a very long lifetime (>150 sec) and can only survive in the thinner atmosphere above 300 km. At lower altitudes the oxygen in the 1D state collides with other atmospheric atoms or molecules before it can emit a photon which deactivates or quenches the excited oxygen. The 1S state of oxygen has a lifetime of about 1 second and therefore emits a photon more quickly and thus can emit at lower altitudes where the density is higher. The aurora sometimes has a purplish lower border which comes from emissions from molecular nitrogen. This "prompt" emission is emitted from excited states of nitrogen that have almost no delay between excitation and emission. It survives at even lower altitudes between 120 and 200 km (80 to 120 miles). In the video sequence at the end of this readme document, the purple emissions from the nitrogen seems to lead the green emissions from the oxygen. This is an example of the difference between the prompt emission of nitrogen vs the emission from the longer-lived excited state of oxygen."
    Reply